Adaptive Cash Resilience in Indonesian UMKM: A Qualitative Multi-Case Study of Recording, Forecasting, Mobilization, and Control Practices in North Sumatra

Abstract

Abstract:   

Research aims:  This study investigates practical cash control strategies for Indonesian UMKM to enhance financial resilience and sustainability amid persistent liquidity crises affecting 70% of micro-enterprises, delivering simple, low-cost techniques tailored to resource-constrained operators in volatile markets.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Qualitative multi-case study of five North Sumatra UMKM across trade, food, agribusiness, and logistics sectors, analyzing secondary data from Kemenkop UKM financial summaries, BPS censuses, Bank Indonesia case studies, and ASEAN SME reports (2022-2025). Miles-Huberman interactive model with rigorous data triangulation synthesized recording, forecasting, mobilization, and control practices.

Research findings:  Daily ledger systems reduced cash discrepancies 35% and errors from 12% to 2%; envelope/rolling forecasts averted closures during inflation spikes with 85% accuracy; arisan pooling and e-wallet sweeps generated 15-22% returns; family rotation audits cut leakage 25%. High-discipline firms doubled ROA (6-12%) and achieved 28-40% liquidity gains.

Theoretical contribution/ Originality:. Develops "Adaptive Cash Resilience Model" extending Baumol inventory and Jensen free cash theories to informal rural contexts, integrating social capital, seasonal moderators, and low-tech adaptations absent from urban-biased quantitative literature.

Practitioner/Policy implication: Deployable templates enable Kemenkop training to project 20-28% survival increases; recommends fintech subsidies and ledger mandates targeting agribusiness for SDG 8/9 alignment.

Research limitation/Implication:  Secondary data constrains real-time insights; regional scope limits extrapolation. Future longitudinal RCTs across 50 UMKM needed.

Keywords: UMKM cash control, financial resilience, sustainable MSMEs, case study analysis, cash flow forecasting, North Sumatra economics